Amid the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe of wars in Ukraine, Palestine, Iran, Russia and Israel, a long-term threat is brewing. As the countries bomb each other, destroying lives, critical infrastructure and often, energy plants, skies across the globe are choked with greenhouse gas emissions. Toxic chemicals pervade the layers of the Earth’s atmosphere, its soils and water, creating an impact that may outlast most of the people witnessing or participating in the wars.
The global militaries contribute around 5.5 per cent of worldwide emissions, excluding the greenhouse gases generated from conflicts and warfare. This exceeds the total contribution combined of civilian aviation (2 per cent) and shipping (3 per cent), according to The Guardian.
"If the world’s militaries were a country, this figure would represent the fourth largest national carbon footprint in the world — higher than Russia," the story mentioned.
At this point, countries can choose whether to report military emissions. In 1997, during the Kyoto Protocol negotiations, the United States managed to exclude military emissions from the treaty's reporting and reduction obligations, citing national security and data privacy concerns. However, in 2015, the Paris Agreement lifted these exemptions, while making the reporting voluntary.
Movement of military, missiles, artillery, fires from bombing and blasts at gas plants, infrastructure demolition and other war activities cause massive GHG emissions. Then, there is also the fear of contamination from nuclear sites that may have been compromised.
Since June 13, 2025, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military stations. It struck Natanz, which has two uranium enrichment plants and a third under construction, as well as Fordow, which has an underground uranium plant, which caused surface damage. On June 22, the United States announced that it has used bunker-busting bombs to target the Fordow plant which lies deep underground.
The International Atomic Energy Agency reported damage to the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and underground fuel enrichment plant at Natanz, with all the 15,000 gas centrifuges damaged by power loss. The agency indicated that there has been reports of radioactive and chemical contamination at the site, but radioactive contamination levels outside remained low and unchanged, according to a note by the Conflict and Environment Observatory.
Although no major off-site nuclear contamination has been reported yet, a strike on Iran’s nuclear reactor at Bushehr situated on the Gulf coast “could cause an absolute radiological catastrophe,” James Acton, co-director of Nuclear Policy Programme at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the news agency Reuters. This can also be a major challenge for the Gulf states, with contamination threats to key drinking water sources and marine ecosystems.
Apart from nuclear facilities, fossil fuel plants also received a major blow in the ongoing war. A major fire erupted at Tehran Oil Refinery during the recent violence, alongside a blaze at the Shahran fuel and gas depot — a key fuel distribution centre northwest of the city. With Tehran’s 10-million-strong population living in a basin flanked by the Alborz mountains and hemmed in by high-rises, such fires worsen already poor air quality, as pollutants become trapped over the city.
Major oil fires release a cocktail of toxic substances — from particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide, to volatile organic compounds like formaldehyde and potentially dioxins and hydrocarbons. Downwind, these can contaminate soils and water bodies. Damage to gas infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field and Fajr Jam gas plant, also risks significant methane emissions — a potent, short-lived greenhouse gas.
Missile damage adds further complexity. Particularly dangerous pollutants from missiles include aluminium oxide, black carbon (soot) particles and gaseous reactive nitrogen and chlorine. These substances have the potential to deplete the ozone layer.
When missiles are intercepted, there are extra contaminants to worry about, like perchlorate, particularly at lower altitudes where humans or the environment might be exposed.
In Herzliya, a strike near a Mossad facility reportedly damaged a wastewater treatment plant, raising local contamination concerns. Israel’s older buildings may also pose inhalation risks due to widespread legacy asbestos.
A fire at Israel’s Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, following Iran’s retaliation, pose threats to marine ecosystems along the Gulf.
Direct war activities by Israel over 15 months in Gaza led to GHG emissions estimated to be higher than what 36 countries and territories emit in an entire year, according to a report titled 'War on Climate'. The war in this region emitted a staggering 1.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) from direct combat activities alone.
Adding emissions from preparation for the war and reconstruction after it, the total would climb to over 32.2 million tCO2e, more than the annual emissions of more than 102 individual countries.
The largest volume of greenhouse gases would start being released when Gaza is rebuilt after the war, the report noted.
From the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 until February 2025, a total of 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent have been released, with 55 million metric tons emitted in 2024 alone.
The emissions are comparable to the yearly emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined or the annual emissions of 120 million fossil fuel vehicles.
In the third year of the war, landscape fires, exacerbated by conflict, saw a significant increase due to unusually dry conditions likely caused by global warming.
Emissions from warfare activities, such as tanks using fuel and fortification construction, steadily increased in 2024, becoming the largest emissions category primarily due to the ongoing use of large quantities of fossil fuels and ammunition.
The Russian Federation should be held liable for these emissions and resulting climate-related damage, noted the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War. "Applying a social cost of carbon of $185 / tCO2e, this amounts to over $42 billion."
Ukaine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has also been under threat since the dam powering it was damaged in attack in 2022. It has been taken over by Russia and converted into a military base to launch attacks on Ukrainian cities.
At present, the condition at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is dire, with a lack of skilled staff, the radiation monitoring system malfunctioning and regular maintenance has been neglected for years. This situation presents a substantial risk to nuclear and radiation safety in Ukraine and Europe, according to Oleg Korikov, head of the Ukraine's nuclear regulatory inspectorate, disclosed during a briefing, the minutes of which were reported by Ukrainian National News.
The environmental implications of war is much greater, especially when regional armed conflict is taken into account. Right now, multiple African countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan are engaged in armed conflict driven by poverty, crises of natural resources, human rights violation and extremism. Apart from this, armed conflict is brewing in Syria in West Asia as well as Haiti, Myanmar, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan in Asia.