Dear Editor,

IN recent discussions regarding Guyana’s rapid economic growth, many have attributed this transformation solely to oil revenues.

As a concerned citizen who has closely monitored our country’s development, I feel compelled to address the misconception that our progress is entirely oil-driven.

A deeper dive into the data reveals that the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) has consistently demonstrated superior economic management long before oil began to flow from our seabed, as substantiated by data from the World Bank and World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG).

Analysing the economic leadership over the last six decades highlights a significant disparity in performance between political parties.

During the period from 1966 to 1992, under the Peoples National Congress (PNC), Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted in multiple years, including a staggering decline of -11.5 per cent in 1983. Throughout the 1980s, inflation averaged over 20 per cent, as per World Bank data.

The economy was beleaguered by excessive public debt, widespread shortages of essential goods, and a mass exodus of over 30,000 citizens annually. GDP per capita plummeted, and confidence in our economy reached an all-time low during this darkest chapter of our history.

When the PPP assumed office in 1992, they inherited a deeply weakened and heavily indebted economy.

Despite these challenges, the party ushered in an era of macroeconomic reform and modernisation lasting until 2015. From 1992 to 2015, real GDP growth averaged over 4 per cent annually, inflation was effectively controlled—typically ranging from 3 per cent to 6 per cent—and public debt was stabilised through comprehensive restructuring.

Foreign investment flourished, and critical infrastructure, including roads, hospitals, and schools, was constructed or revitalised. Consequently, net migration fell to below 6,000 people per year by the mid-2010s, according to the Global Bilateral Migration Database/UN DESA.

All this progress occurred without oil revenues. The PPP’s achievements were propelled by sound macroeconomic policies aimed at repairing the economy prior to 1992 and fostering growth and prosperity for all Guyanese.

When the APNU+AFC coalition took power in 2015, they inherited a stable and growing economy. However, their tenure from 2015 to 2020 was marked by significant economic mismanagement, which included the introduction of over 200 new taxes and fees, significantly burdening working families.

According to the Guyana Revenue Authority’s “Summary of Tax Measures—2015 National Budget,” this mismanagement was compounded by a failure to establish a sovereign wealth fund or savings framework for impending oil revenues. During this period, the World Bank noted stagnation in GDP growth until 2019, when oil contributions just began to materialise. The coalition also neglected to plan for infrastructure expansions linked to oil readiness.

By 2020, the Auditor General of Guyana reported that the coalition had depleted the Treasury, leaving insufficient fiscal buffers. Rather than build fiscal resilience and invest in the future, the APNU+AFC left office with minimal tangible progress and no meaningful improvement in the lives of Guyanese citizens.

Since regaining office in 2020, the PPP has restored macroeconomic credibility and demonstrated that while oil is a revenue source, effective governance is the true engine of progress. Despite the challenges posed by a global pandemic, GDP growth reached 33.8 per cent in 2023 and is projected to exceed 13 per cent in 2025, according to the IMF.

Inflation remains modest at under 4 per cent, and the ratio of national debt to GDP is declining, thanks to prudent budgeting and accelerated growth, as reported by the Bank of Guyana in its Annual Report for 2023. Unemployment has also dropped to around 10 per cent—substantially lower than during previous crises.

Notably, oil revenues are being invested in critical areas such as housing, roads, healthcare, and education, thereby laying a foundation for long-term prosperity. The PPP has even surpassed its goal of granting educational scholarships to 39,000 Guyanese, exceeding its goal of 20,000.

The evidence is clear, under the PPP, Guyana experiences growth, while the PNC/APNU era saw stagnation or decline. The assertion that “it’s only the oil” fails to account for the economic decline during the PNC’s governance without oil, the PPP’s considerable rebuilding efforts without oil, and the APNU+AFC’s poor management as oil revenues approached.

Ultimately, what matters most is leadership, vision, and discipline—qualities the PPP has consistently demonstrated during both challenging times and periods of economic boom.

Yours faithfully,

Dr. Tilokie Arnold Depoo

Economist