More than 8 million Chadians are set to go to the polls on Monday, May 6, for a presidential election intended to put an end to the transitional government put in place in the wake of the death of President Idriss Déby Itno, killed in fighting with rebels in April 2021.
The stakes are high. His son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, hoisted into his father's position by a group of military officers, wants to legitimize his power through the ballot box. His main rival, Prime Minister Succès Masra, has no intention of making his task any easier. This political battle between two 40-year-old men is cause for concern among election observers.
Those in power are pleased to be holding the first presidential election among the African countries (Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger) that have experienced undemocratic regime changes in recent years. But "given the tensions surrounding the ballot, this may be different only in form. Basically, it's still about staying in power," commented one observer, pointing out that the electoral institutions are controlled by the regime's cronies.
Since Idriss Déby Itno's death three years ago, every effort has been made to secure his son's power, sometimes with violence. In autumn 2022, an " Inclusive and Sovereign National Dialogue" (DNIS) extended the transitional period by 18 months and authorized the junta leader to run for the supreme magistracy, provoking an outcry from civil society and the opposition. On October 20, 2022, depending on reports, between 73 to 300 demonstrators who came out to demand the handover of power to civilians were killed by the forces of law and order.
On February 28, opponent Yaya Dillo, also a cousin of the transitional president, died during the army assault on his party's headquarters in downtown N'Djamena. As if nothing had happened, Mahamat Idriss Déby announced his candidacy for the presidential election a few days later and the French president's special envoy, Jean-Marie Bockel, spoke to the presidential press about his "admiration" for Mahamat Idriss Déby's transitional leadership. This episode was reminiscent of Emmanuel Macron's speech at Idriss Déby Itno's funeral, when he was the only Western head of state to attend: "France will never allow the stability and integrity of Chad to be called into question," he declared. The statement sounded like the endorsement of a dynastic succession.
Struggling to deal with his father's legacy
Paris views Chad primarily through a security prism; it represents this "island of stability," the last "pro-Western domino standing in a region plagued by crises and where Moscow is constantly extending its influence." "An illusion," for some, but one that Mahamat Idriss Déby knows how to use to his advantage, both internationally and politically.
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